Mar. 31, 2025; Spokane, WA, USA: In the first half of an Elite 8 NCAA Tournament basketball game at Spokane Arena, UConn Huskies guard Paige Bueckers (5) manages the ball against the USC Trojans. Required Credit: Imagn Images/James Snook
In the Final Four, the #2 UConn Huskies are much favored over the #1 UCLA Bruins.
All 14 of UConn’s victories have been by double digits.
View the odds, predictions, choices, and player props for UConn vs. UCLA.
The UConn Huskies (35-3) are favored against the #1 UCLA Bruins (34-2) in the 2025 Final Four, even though they are seeded #2. Immediately before Texas and South Carolina’s matchup for the other slot in Sunday’s national championship game, Paige Bueckers and the Huskies take face Lauren Betts and the Bruins at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida, tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET. In Friday’s semifinal, UConn, the -160, clear favorite to win the championship, is 7.5 points ahead of UCLA.
UConn vs UCLA Odds
| Bet Type | UConn | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7.5 (-105) | +7.5 (-115) |
| ML | -400 | +310 |
| Total | O 135.5 (-110) | U 135.5 (-110) |
The UConn Huskies (35-3) are favored against the #1 UCLA Bruins (34-2) in the 2025 Final Four, even though they are seeded #2. Immediately before Texas and South Carolina’s matchup for the other slot in Sunday’s national championship game, Paige Bueckers and the Huskies take face Lauren Betts and the Bruins at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida, tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET. In Friday’s semifinal, UConn, the -160, clear favorite to win the championship, is 7.5 points ahead of UCLA.
Last Sunday, UConn was the 10.5-point ATS favorite and the -650 moneyline favorite when the UConn vs. UCLA point spread began. However, that line was nearly instantly bet down to -8.5. It has shifted one more point in the direction of the Bruins in recent days. Two hours before tip-off, the total is back at 135.5 after dropping a half-point during the week.
There were many blowouts along UConn’s route to the Final Four. The Huskies defeated a JuJu Watkins-less USC in the Elite Eight (78-64) after thrashing #16 Arkansas State (103-34), #10 South Dakota State (91-57), and #3 Oklahoma (82-59). Paige Bueckers scored a career-high 31 points (20.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.8 APG) and freshman Sarah Strong (16.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 3.6 APG), the nation’s top recruit the previous season, had an incredible 22 points and 17 rebounds.
After defeating #2 LSU 72-65, UCLA advanced to the Final Four with three decisive victories: #16 Southern (84-46), #8 Richmond (84-67), and #5 Ole Miss (76-62). With 16 minutes left, the Bruins led 43-29, but with 3:23 left, they were forced into a three-point contest (56-53). To settle the score, UCLA would score the next six points.
Lauren Betts scored a season-high six blocks on defense in addition to her modest 17 points and seven rebounds versus LSU (20.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.8 APG). The Miami Heat’s Jaime Jaquez’s sister, junior guard Gabriela Jaquez (9.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.2 APG), came through with a game-high 18 points and eight rebounds, going 4-of-5 from three. She scored the second most points of the season in that game.
UConn vs UCLA Ratings
| UCONN | STAT | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st (+57.7) | Torvik Rating | 5th (+47.5) |
| 1st (128.0) | Off. Rating | 4th (122.5) |
| 1st (70.3) | Def. Rating | 9th (75.0) |
Even though Torvik has only begun evaluating NCAAW rankings since the 2020–2021 year, this UConn squad is the best bunch in the scale’s history. Indeed, the 2025 Huskies had a much higher rating than the unbeaten South Carolina squad who took home the national title the previous year.
The reason is that, aside from a blip at Tennessee on February 6 (an 80-76 loss), UConn has been a complete nonpareil since New Year’s Day. Under head coach Geno Auriemma, his team has been playing suffocating defense; they have held 31 of 38 opponents under 60, and almost every player in their rotation is a threat from three-point range. UConn’s 38.3 3P% is sixth-best out of all 362 DI teams, and the Huskies’ 50.9% FG% is not only the best in the nation, but 1.6% better than any other team.
UCLA vs. UConn Predictions & Selections
At BetMGM, UConn is -7.5 (-110)
Over 9.5 rebounds and 105 points, Sarah Strong at DraftKings
The Huskies will find it extremely difficult to stop 6’7 Lauren Betts in the post, much like every other team in the country. However, Jana El Alfy, a freshman center, is at least tall enough to force Betts to work. In any case, UConn’s strength on defense is not its size but rather its quickness and athleticism. You can be certain that his defensive strategy is to prevent Betts from entering, rather than trying to cover her after she has the ball.
Due in part to the difficulty of getting the ball into the post against this defense, UConn’s opponents have made 40.4% of their three-point attempts this season.
Even though Betts has the ball in her hands tonight, the Bruins’ main issue will be trying to continue scoring twos while the Huskies are dominating threes. UCLA just makes 34% of its three-point attempts and shoots just 33.7% from beyond the arc. The Huskies make them at a much greater pace (38.3%) and take a lot more (36.2%).
I’m going to wager on Sarah Strong, a freshman phenom, to pull down double-digit rebounds at plus-money in addition to UConn -7.5. She has been a true monster on the glass in the tournament, despite only averaging 8.8 per game this season. In her four March Madness games, she has averaged 11.8 RPG; most recently, she recorded a career-high 17 points against USC, all of which came on defense.
Strong will be boxing out and cleaning up once more as her teammates try to force terrible shots from the outside.
